The 5-year forecast (2023-2027) of Video On Demand (VOD) market

The report estimates the market size and share of video on demand (VOD) in 2022 by SVOD/TVOD/EST. The report also provides the market size forecast by 2027 under the three scenarios of "Base," "Optimistic," and "Pessimistic" for each SVOD/TVOD/EST as well as the overall market.
Furthermore, the report provides a detailed description of the estimation logic used in the report, allowing you to confirm the estimation method.

Analysis Examples

VOD market size, and market size by SVOD/TVOD/EST

We estimate the overall VOD market size in 2022, as well as the SVOD/TVOD/EST market size and share by service.

SVOD Market share

Market size forecast for the next five years based on three scenarios: "base," "optimistic," and "pessimistic.

Based on the past VOD penetration in Japan and the U.S., three scenarios of "base," "optimistic," and "pessimistic" are set, and forecasts are provided for the market as a whole and by SVOD/TVOD/EST until 2027. In addition, forecasts for the DVD and BD markets are also provided based on the same scenarios.


Sharing of estimation logic and results

In addition to our questionnaire survey, we have used public statistics, public figures from VOD service providers, and the lineup status of distributors to make our estimates. The report describes in detail the logic of the estimation and allows the reader to confirm the calculation method using the estimated number of users for each service.

Coverage of major services in Japan


  • ABEMA Premium
  • Amazon Prime Video
  • Anime Hodai
  • DAZN
  • Disney+
  • Docomo Anime Store
  • dTV
  • FOD
  • Hulu
  • Netflix
  • Paravi
  • U-NEXT
  • Other Services


  • ABEMA Store
  • Amazon Prime Video
  • DMM TV
  • dTV
  • FOD
  • Google Play
  • GYAO! Store!ストア
  • Hikari TV Video Service
  • Hulu Store
  • iTunes Store
  • J:COM On Demand
  • Paravi
  • Rakuten TV
  • U-NEXT
  • Other Services


  • Amazon Prime Video
  • DMM TV
  • Google Play
  • Hikari TV Video Service
  • iTunes Store
  • Rakuten TV
  • Other Services
*alphabetical order


  • Overview
  • 1.Estimation results
    • 1) Estimation results for overall VOD market
    • 2) Comparison of VOD market with DVD/BD market
    • 3) Shares per type of service
  • 2.Estimation logic
    • Overall picture of estimation logic
    • Step1 Estimation of market size in 2022
      ・Parameter values used in 2022 estimation
    • Step2 Estimation of market size in and after 2023
      - Method of forecasting subscription percentage in and after 2023
      - Correlation between the number of users and its growing rate
      - The concept of setting up VOD market growth rate in Japan for each scenario
      - (Reference) Comparison of share of VOD between Japan and the US
      - Changes of parameters used in estimation (Base scenario)
      - [A1] Changes of internet population and shares per gender/generation
      - [A2] (Total)Changes of subscription percentage
      - [A] (Total)Changes of the number of users
  • 3.Reference
    • 1) Estimation of shares per content type/content holder in 2022
      - Shares per content type in 2022 (estimation)
      - Shares per content holder of movies in 2022 (estimation)
    • 2) Changes of market size/shares per type of service
    • 3) SVOD users unit value
    • 4) Recognition and Intention to Subscribe to Netflix‘s Basic with Ads Plan*Additional survey in 2023

Survey overview

Product Name The 5-year forecast (2023-2027) of Video On Demand (VOD) market
Survey method GEM Partners "Video on demand/Broadcast/Physical home video market user analysis report", “Brand Loyalty Survey for Subscription Media Streaming Services ","Demographic forecast" by Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, "Demographic forecast in Japan" by National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, "Telecom use trend survey" by MIC, "Video software market size and user trend survey" by Japan Video Software Association, The DIGITAL Entertainment Group ”Home Entertainment Report” as well as companies' IRs, press release, and website are used for analysis.
The total number of pages 26 pages
Deliverable Option Report (PDF), Aggregate data(Excel)


  • Japanese Ver. (PDF, Excel): ¥330,000
  • Japanese Ver. (PDF, Excel)+ English Ver.(PDF, Excel): ¥550,000
  • *All prices are tax included.
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