Japan's VOD market size is 593.0 billion yen (2024, +3.3% YoY), estimated to be 787.3 billion yen by 2029
GEM Partners has estimated the 2024 video streaming (VOD) market size and projected its growth through 2029 under three scenarios: base, optimistic, and pessimistic. This article reviews the domestic VOD market trends from 2020 and reveals the base scenario forecast for 2029.
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In 2024, Japan's VOD market is estimated to reach 593.0 billion yen (+3.3% YoY), showing signs of slower growth.
The overall domestic market for video-on-demand (VOD) services (the sum of "Subscription Video O Demand [SVOD]," " Transactional Video On emand [TVOD]," and "Electronic Sell Through [EST]") in 2024 is estimated to be 593.0 billion yen, up 3.3% from the previous year. This value is an estimate by the amount paid by consumers to these video streaming service providers for one year and does not include advertising revenue.
Compared to 2020, when the Pandemic began, the market has grown by 53.0%, reaching nearly 1.5 times its previous size. While the market has continued to expand since 2021, the growth rate has gradually slowed each year, falling below 5% in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%.
In the base scenario, the market size in 2029 is expected to reach 787.3 billion yen.
GEM Partners projects the growth speed of the VOD market as a whole through 2029 under three scenarios: "base," "optimistic," and "pessimistic." These projections are based on the results of a consumer survey, the past VOD penetration in Japan and the United States, the ratio of DVD/BD market to VOD in the total video home entertainment market, and past market trends and growth rates.
The forecasted 2029 value in the chart represents the "base" scenario, which assumes that the post COVID VOD market after 2024 will continue to decelerate at a similar pace to 2022–2024, when growth slowed. Based on this assumption, the market is projected to expand to 787.3 billion yen by 2029.
The DVD/BD market is projected to continue shrinking; however, the VOD market is expected to grow at a faster pace than the decline of the DVD/BD market. As a result, the total video market size, including both DVD/BD and VOD, is anticipated to expand by 2029.
The product report estimates the market size forecast to 2029 for the video distribution market as a whole, as well as by "Subscription Video On Demand (SVOD)," "Transactional Video On Demand (TVOD)," and "Electronic Sell Through(EST)," with "base," "optimistic," and "pessimistic" scenarios. This annual report also includes the above estimation logic detailed, so readers can confirm the estimation method.