Japan's VOD market size is 574 billion yen (2023, 8.2% growth YoY), estimated to be 737.1 billion yen by 2028.

Tokyo Japan, February 16th, 2024 - GEM Partners, a provider of data and digital marketing services for the entertainment industry has published a report called "Japan's Video-on-Demand (VOD) Market 5-Year Forecast (2024-2028)," which estimates the size of Japan's VOD market in 2023 and forecasts the market size for each year after that through 2028 under three scenarios. In this release, we look back at the transition of the overall Japan market size of video-on-demand (VOD) services from 2019 and provide an excerpt of the forecasted market size for 2028, five years from now, from the report.

Japan's video-on-demand (VOD) services market is estimated to have reached 574 billion yen (+8.2% YoY) in 2023 and will continue to expand.

The overall domestic market for video-on-demand (VOD) services (the sum of "subscription video on demand (SVOD)," "rental video on demand (TVOD)," and "video on sale (EST)") in 2023 is estimated to be 574 billion yen, up 8.2% from the previous year. This value is an estimate by the amount paid by consumers to these video distribution service providers for one year and does not include advertising revenue.

Compared to 2019, before the Pandemic, the market grew by 96.2%, almost doubling in size. Looking at the growth rate for each year, the market grew significantly in 2020, increasing 32.5% YoY due to the demand for stay-at-home entertainment due to the Pandemic. However, although the market has continued to expand since 2021, the pace of growth has slowed each year, and in 2023, the market grew by a single digit, up 8.2% from the previous year.

In the base scenario, the market size in 2028 is expected to reach 737.1 billion yen.

The report estimates the growth speed of the video distribution market as a whole until 2028 under three scenarios: "base," "optimistic," and "pessimistic," based on the results of a consumer survey conducted by GEM Partners, the past video distribution penetration in Japan and the United States, the ratio of DVD/BD market to video distribution in the total video home entertainment market, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This release's forecast for 2028 is based on the "base" scenario, which assumes that the U.S. video distribution market will continue to grow moderately after Japan's "2020-2023" pandemic. Based on this assumption, the market is expected to increase to 737.1 billion yen by 2028.

The DVD/BD market is projected to continue shrinking, but the video distribution market will expand faster than the shrinkage of the DVD/BD market, and the total video market size, including both DVD/BD and video distribution, is expected to expand by 2028.

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The product report estimates the market size forecast to 2028 for the video distribution market as a whole, as well as by "subscription-based video distribution (SVOD)," "rental-based video distribution (TVOD)," and "video sales (EST)," with "base," "optimistic," and "pessimistic" scenarios. The report also includes market size and share by service in 2023 for SVOD, TVOD, and EST. Furthermore, the above estimation logic is detailed so readers can confirm the estimation method. In addition, the report also examines "SVOD per user" and, as part of this year's project, "Amazon Prime Video Channel Usage.

Report specification
Product name: Japan's Video-on-Demand (VOD) Market 5-Year Forecast (2024-2028)
Published Date: February 16, 2024
Language: English / Japanese
Deliverable Option: Report (PDF), Aggregate data(Excel)
The total number of pages: 28 pages